People are basically optimists. If we weren’t, we would never start businesses and probably wouldn’t leave our homes in the morning. Taking risks is in our DNA and has served our species well over millennia as we’ve developed the technologies that we now use in everyday life. That said, there are times when we want to mitigate the risks that we’re taking, where we want to hedge against things going wrong. Does your approach to marketing planning build in such a hedge within common statistical considerations? I bet not.